Apr 10, 2008 | 10:28 PM
Category:
Political
With the long, hard slog headed into its fifth sweltering Iraqi summer, President Bush is still refusing to call for a timetable on U.S. troop withdrawals.
Because of recent progress on the ground, Mr. Bush has authorized the military to go ahead with an already planned troop reduction in July.
Deployment times will be reduced from 15-months to 12-months. But it's hard to take the President seriously about long term troop levels, because every soldier that deploys from here on out will be in a war zone long after the President is out of office.
Defense Secretary Robert Gates says he sees "no chance" that the number of U.S. troops in Iraq will drop to 100,000 by the end of the year.
To that end, I join Jon Soltz, co-founder and chair of votevets.org, in calling on President Bush and John McCain to "put their money where their mouth is" and stop standing in the way of the Webb-Hagel "Dwell Time" Amendment.
According to Senator Webb's website its a "bi-partisan amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act requiring that active-duty troops and units have at least equal time at home as the length of their previous tour overseas. The amendment also sets a minimum 1-to-3 year ratio for National Guard and Reserve members and units."
Soltz rightly points out that if the President is truly serious about relieving the strain on our forces, he'll support the amendment right away.
Mar 13, 2008 | 5:49 PM
Category:
Political
If you thought hanging chads were bad, brace yourself, a Florida mail-in redo could be a disaster. That's precisely why its not going to happen. There are many reasons for this, but they break into two groups: logistical and political.
Logistical becomes more obvious the more you think about. How could they possibly pull this off? I'm told Oregon has a good mail-in system, but the state requires voters to scan their signatures beforehand, which are then matched to the signatures on the ballots. With no such system in place in the Sunshine State, the the primary would be rife with fraud, or at least the appearance of fraud. In the end "no" vote does far less damage than an "unfair" one.
Logistical feeds the political. The simple fact is Clinton wants a re-vote, Obama doesn't. Well, actually, Clinton wants to let the old vote stand. Short of that, she wants a re-vote. Howard Dean said he would only accept a solution both sides agree on. Considering Clinton's inherent advantages in Florida, the Obama camp will stall for as long as possible. Clinton will attack him for impeding democracy, and he'll say he just wants to make sure the process is fair.
In the end they'll miss the deadline, and this whole mess will be passed on to the mysterious Credentials Committee. And, to paraphrase Wayne's World 2, like the shopkeeper and his son, that's a different story altogether.
Mar 7, 2008 | 2:51 PM
Category:
Political
Hillary Clinton has no choice. If she somehow manages to get the nomination, she will have to put Barack Obama on the ticket. Neither candidate will get enough pledge delegates to put them over the top. Barack Obama, who, at the end of this process, will probably end up winning Texas by 5 delegates, will finish with an overall delegate lead and will be have the most convincing argument for Super Delegates support.
At this point, Senator Clinton's strategy reminds me of Homer Simpson's plan for passing his final exam without studying. He said we would, "Hide under some coats, and hope that somehow everything will workout." Clinton is hoping Obama will stumble or hand over Michigan and Florida. Neither is likely. But if she does somehow prevail, through negative attacks or, gasp, a lawsuit over Michigan or Florida, she will need Obama's blessing to put the party back together again.
If the hoards of young energized Obama supporters feel the nomination was stolen, many will stay home in November and could potentially stay home for many elections to come. Her "stunning wins" in Ohio and Texas were made possible because of hardcore, traditional democrats. To beat McCain she needs, Obama's independents and young folks in her corner.
In response to Mr. McGraw's question about what to do about Michigan and Florida. There is no good answer, but a caucus do-over paid for by the DNC is probably the fairest solution. The quickest and cheapest way is to split the delegates down the middle.
Feb 28, 2008 | 11:45 PM
Category:
Political
If 44-year-old Barack Obama goes on to win the nomination he will square off against someone 25 years his senior in John McCain. That's the largest age gap between candidates ever. Bob Dole/Bill Clinton is second place. I'm 27 years old, its like me running against a toddler. No wonder McCain seems to have so much trouble taking Obama seriously.
He needs to start taking him seriously and fast, just ask the Clintons. For some reason the senator from Arizona seems to think the experience strategy that obviously isn't working for Hillary will somehow work for him. I think voters were turned off by his rather patronizing tone -- giving Obama a "news flash" that Al-Qaeda is in Iraq. I thought Obama handled it well, thanking McCain for the update and pretending he hadn't been reading the papers. He then reminded McCain that Al-Qaeda wasn't in iraq before Mr. Bush and Mr. McCain led us in there.
If they are the nominees, this exchange is the race in a nut shell. McCain reminds voters of his knowledge of the world and combat, and Obama links McCain to the war and the President and calls for change.
Feb 14, 2008 | 8:47 PM
Category:
Political
I have a friend named Joe who still uses Joe Lieberman's oft ridiculed "Joe-Mentum" slogan. One of the many reasons "Joe-mentum" was so funny is because when Lieberman used it he had virtually no regular momentum. Barack Obama does.
"Obama-mentum", "Barack and Roll" whatever you call it, he has it, and Virginia is the proof. Not only is he cutting into Senator Clinton's core constituents (Latinos, working class white women, elderly voters, etc.) but he's attracting a staggering number of new voters.
In the 2004 Democratic Primary -- roughly 350,000 people voted. On Tuesday the number was roughly 990,000. That's a more than 150% increase. 100% would have been incredible, but 150% is almost unbelievable. By the way, the republican turn out was less than half that -- about 487,000. So how much of that is The so-called "Obama Effect" and how much is democratic energy against the war and George Bush?
Look at it this way: Obama got about 620,000 votes. That means 170,000 more people voted for Obama in 2008 than voted in the entire democratic primary in 2004.
Look out Hillary, The Obama Express is speeding toward Texas. If you're not careful, the next stop could be the nomination.
Feb 7, 2008 | 5:07 PM
Category:
Political
The dead heat in the Democratic race shows that voters are reasonably happy with both candidates. You'd think they would be a dream ticket right? Wrong. Conventional wisdom says Obama could be a running mate to Clinton, but not the other way around. Her negatives are too high and ( with apologies to Al Gore) she's already been a de facto Vice President.
So if Obama does get the nod, who does he turn to for VP? In a race against McCain, Obama would need someone to bolster his national security credentials. The name Jim Webb keeps popping up. On the face of it, he makes sense. He's a moderate, from a purple state with a strong military background.
One problem could be Reagan overload -- after all Webb is a "Reagan Democrat" and former Navy Secretary under Reagan. Given Obama's recent, and albeit misconstrued, praise for "The Gipper", Webb might be too much of a "right" thing.
Feb 4, 2008 | 2:31 PM
Category:
Political
Two candidates and two different models for success. The Clinton camp says she's the candidate best prepared to slug it out in the general election and as President. She has fought what she calls "the Republican attack machine" for 15 years and she's still standing. In short, she's tough enough to get things done. The Obama camp, on the other hand, portrays him as a uniter. He's a big tent guy, not unlike Ronald Regan, who can bring people together around a shared vision. Let's assume that the Democrat does go on to become president, this Clinton/Obama divide offers a stark contrast on how best to enact a progressive agenda. On universal health care for example. Do the dems need a candidate who can manage a narrow coalition and navigate the pitfalls of congress or someone who can potentially change playing field entirely with a sweeping mandate. No one knows, and I think this is why Democrats are having such a tough time choosing between the candidates.
Feb 1, 2008 | 1:03 PM
Category:
Political
George Will has a famous quote that, "Football combines the two worst aspects of American life -- violence and committee meetings." He may be right, but no one seems to care. There's no question we've become a football nation; the NFL is huge and college football is almost a secular religion in some parts of the country. But could it be that we're becoming a political nation as well. A new ABC/Washington Post poll asks Americans if they're more excited about the Super Bowl or Super Tuesday.40% said Super Bowl and 37% said Super Tuesday. Take a second to let that set in. Within the margin of error, the same percentage of Americans are more excited about a political primary than the biggest sporting spectacle in the world. And this isn't just any Super Bowl, this is Boston vs. New York, David vs. Goliath -- Tom Brady's quest for immortality. To me this poll points out two truths. 1) This election is about as dramatic as it gets. The Democrats are breaking glass ceilings with two rock star candidates. The Republican front runner, John McCain, who was all but dead and buried last summer, is completing one of the greatest comebacks in political history. 2) Exactly what the NFL commissioner Pete Rozelle knew from the start, we are suckers for anything with the word super in the title.
Jan 31, 2008 | 6:32 PM
Category:
Political
According to Stuart Rothenberg of the Rothenberg Political Report, as of Florida, only 209 republican delegates had been accounted for. On Super Tuesday, 1,014 delegates will be allotted -- more than 40% of the total delegates. Same thing with the democrats.
Next tuesday is the closest we've ever come to a national primary. With that in mind, its hard to believe so many candidates have already called it quits. I guess money and momentum still trump the will of the people.
The other place I saw 40% mentioned was in Nic Kristoff's column in the New York Times. He was talking about the Senator Clinton's dynastic problem.
He points out, "If Hillary Rodham Clinton serves two terms, then for 28 years the presidency will have been held by a Bush or a Clinton. By that point, about 40 percent of Americans would have lived their entire lives under a president from one of these two families."
To me this really is the most effective argument against Hillary Clinton's candidacy. She's clearly experienced and brilliant when it comes to domestic and foreign policy, but the specter of another Clinton in the White House is troubling for many voters. And polls suggest Bill Clinton's high profile during the South Carolina primary stirred up this lingering uneasiness in the electorate. The term "Billary" is back in the zeitgeist and that can't bode well for Mrs. Clinton.
40% is today's big number.
