Oct 1, 2008 | 10:24 PM
Category:
Sports
In every poker game there is a wildcard, in the Race for the Chase, you have a wildcard and that is Talladega. There are so many ways for the Chase for the Cup to be shuffled at Talladega. “The Big One” is the usual culprit for the shakeup in the point standings. For proof you just need to look at recent history. In 2004 Jeff Gordon was leading the point standings when the series headed to Talladega. When he left Talladega he was no longer in the lead and finished third in the standings. In 2005 Jimmie Johnson was the leader going into Talladega; he finished thirty-first, lost the lead and finished fifth that season. In 2007 Jimmie Johnson was in the lead and left Talladega in second. So be ready for the carnage that will, most certainly, occur.
The big question in my mind is does Jimmie Johnson have anything to fear? Absolutely! Twice he has come into Alabama with the points lead and has gone home out of first place. He currently has a ten point lead over second place Carl Edwards and a 30 point lead over Greg Biffle. Johnson needs to avoid trouble and have a top ten finish to preserve his points lead. Talladega hasn’t been the best track for Johnson. He has five top tens, four top fives, one win, one pole and five DNF’s
Fortunately for Johnson it has been a dreadful track for Carl Edwards and Greg Biffle. Edwards has eight starts, three top fives, one top five, two DNF’s with an average finish of 24.0 and a driver rating of 70.5. Biffle is actually worse than Edwards at Talladega. Biffle has 11 starts, zero top fives, zero top tens, four DNF’s, with an average finish of 25.3 and a driver rating of 68.0.
There is one driver in the chase that stands above the rest at Talladega and that is four-time champion, Jeff Gordon. Gordon has 31 career starts at Talladega, he has six wins, 13 top fives, 16 top tens, seven DNF’s, with an average finish of 15th and a driver rating of 96.9. It is in the realm of possibility for Gordon to pick up a win to break his winless streak and continue his streak of 14 years with at least one win. Gordon and the 24 team had a good run in Kansas last week.
Whenever you come to a plate track you have to look at Dale Earnhardt, Junior to pick up a win. In 17 career starts he has five wins, 7 top fives, 10 top tens, 4 DNF’s with a driver rating of 86.6.
One driver in the chase that would like to see anyone else have a bad week is Kyle Busch. The collapse of this dominate team is almost epic in proportion. His prospects of pulling out of his slump are not good in Alabama. Kyle has seven starts with one win and four DNF’s, average finish of 27.3 and a driver rating of 70.7. The Chase for the Cup is over for the 18 team, they could pick up some wins, but there are too many drivers between them and the top spot to get past at this stage in the season.
With the first three weeks of the chase in the bag, look for something unexpected in week four. The deck is sure to be shuffled in Talladega on Sunday.
Sep 11, 2008 | 9:11 PM
Category:
Sports
The chase is about numbers. The top twelve, 80 bonus points, ten races and one champion. There are two really amazing numbers to me. The first number is zero. Zero is the combined number of wins for Tony Stewart, Greg Biffle, Jeff Gordon, Kevin Harvick and Matt Kenseth. The other amazing number is 18, the combined number of wins of Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards and Jimmie Johnson. Another surprising number is 22, the number of races won so far this season by chase drivers. So the best of the best is the top twelve.
Not so fast, the top five are the best of the best this season. The bottom seven are in the chase, but there haven't been very many inspiring races by the drivers in the bottom seven. Of the bottom seven Tony Stewart suffered the most. He had multiple wins in sight, but something always happened to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Jeff Gordon showed some promise in some early runs this season, but they haven't shown much in the last few weeks. As for Harvick and Kenseth, well they just don't seem to be able to establish a plan of attack. None of the bottom seven drivers are stepping up to the plate.
The Chase for the Cup is going to come down to Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards and Jimmie Johnson. Of those three Jimmie Johnson looks to be the driver that is moving in the right direction at the right time. Kyle Busch has been the super star this season. He has put a beatin' on the other Sprint Cup series drivers. He has had some bumps in the road, but he has been awesome. Carl Edwards has also had a great season. Early on he looked like he was going to be the unbeatable foe in 2008. Then there was that little "alleged" cheating thing. It took some steam out of their run, but they have come back with some vengeance.
I must point out, just for my integrity, that anything can happen in the last ten races and if a driver has a couple of runs where they finish in the lower third of the standings, look out. To win the championship you have to avoid bad luck. Even if you avoid bad luck that may not be enough. Jeff Gordon's worst finish last season during the chase was an eleventh place finish and he still finished a distant second to the champ. In opposite fashion Jimmie Johnson avoided bad luck in the chase last season (and had four wins), and he picked up his second straight championship.
As I look at the final ten races I can't see anyone else winning the Sprint Cup other than Kyle Busch. They have a penchant for getting on a hot streak and if they do this will be a very long stretch for the rest of the chase field.
In chase week one, I do have to go against my conventional wisdom and pick Jimmie Johnson as the winner for week one. They are on a roll and I don't see anyone stopping them this week.
Whatever the outcome it is going to be an exciting chase and a wrap-up to a great season.
Sep 3, 2008 | 9:20 PM
Category:
Sports
This all started seven long months ago in Daytona and now it comes down to one race in Richmond. For 12 drivers it will mean something to race for over the next ten weeks. For 31 other drivers it becomes a chore, a challenge to hang on for next year and probably a time to try new set-ups, strategies and combinations for 2009.
If you look at this realistically there are only two drivers that have a shot at gaining enough points to make the chase. Historically three drivers have done it, Jeremy Mayfield won the Richmond race in 2004 and raced his way in, Ryan Newman did it in 2005 and Kasey Kahne did it in 2006. So looking at it from that perspective, there will be one driver in and one driver out.
The driver in the most danger of being out is Clint Bowyer. He is only 17 points ahead of 13th place David Ragan and 48 points ahead of Kasey Kahne. For Bowyer to clinch a spot all he has to do is either win or finish second and lead the most laps or third and lead the most laps.
For David Ragan he has to win and lead the most laps, no matter what any other driver does. Kahne can clinch if he finishes 48 points ahead of Bowyer and 31 points ahead of Ragan to clinch a spot.
For Greg Biffle and Kevin Harvick it is pretty simple, they just have to take the green flag at Richmond. For the next four drivers it is a little more complicated.
No matter what any other driver does for Tony Stewart to clinch a spot he has to Finish 36th or better or finish 37th and lead at least one lap or finish 40th and lead the most laps.
Matt Kenseth, regardless of what any other driver does, has to finish 26th or finish 28th and lead at least one lap or finish 30th and lead the most laps.
Four-time champion Jeff Gordon has to finish 24th or finish 25th and lead at least one lap or finish 28th and lead the most laps and Denny Hamlin must finish 21st or finish 22nd and lead at least one lap or finish 25th and lead the most laps.
There is always the chance that there will be a huge melee and take out all the drivers that need to clinch a spot and really mess things up. I don't think that is highly likely, but I would be ready for some surprises.
When NASCAR developed the chase format, I for one, hated the idea. I have come to appreciate the chase. It has done exactly what it was designed to do. It has created interest in the tail end of the year. It has created drama in the final race of the season and most importantly it has done away with those seasons when the championship was decided by October.
My crusade against Kyle Busch has ended. I acheived my goal of closing the bonus point gap, so this week I return to making a serious pick for this weeks race (like it really matters). I am going to go with Jeff Gordon to pick up his first win of the year--sounds really odd to say that at this time of the year. He has run well on short tracks this season and could really use a great run and I think it would boost the confidence of the 24 team going into the Chase for the Cup.
No matter who your driver is it will be an exciting race on Saturday night full of fireworks and some of those may happen after the race.
Aug 27, 2008 | 9:54 PM
Category:
Sports
With two races to go before the Chase for the Cup we head to California. This will once again be a pivitol weekend for some drivers in the chase. Most notably those near the cutoff point. We have a driver that is making a lot of noise headed to the chase. David Ragan, driver of the number 6 AAA Ford, has put on an impressive show. In the last seven races he has five top tens and sits just 12 points out of the top 12. Ragan has run well on tracks 1.5 - 2 miles. Although his success at California Speedway hasn't been dramatic, his three starts have resulted in three top 20's and he has a driver rating of 77.4 at California.
Clint Bowyer will be looking in his rearview mirror to see if Ragan is there to take him out of the top twelve. Bowyer hasn't had great success at California, in five career starts he has one top five, two top tens with an average finish of 12.4. Bowyer needs to have a very solid run to keep his hope of a place in the chase alive.
Denny Hamlin is another driver who needs a solid run the next two weeks and California isn't a good track for him. In five career starts Hamlin has one top ten. More importantly in the last few weeks the FedEx team has struggled. They don't look poised to make a run for the chase, let alone a championship.
There are a couple of drivers that can clinch their berth in the chase this weekend. Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Junior can both clinch if they finish 40th or better, they will not a problem. Jeff Burton has a chance to clinch if he finishes 15th or better, he should.
Probably the most curious thing that still hangs in the air is the fact the Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart still don't have a win this season. Both of them have run well enough to get a win, just hasn't happened yet, and may not and that would be a shame. Will either one of them get the win this weekend? I doubt it.
I don't see how you can look past Carl Edwards or Kyle Busch to pick up a victory this weekend. They are just on top of their game and appear to be unstoppable. I think that my pick of Kyle Busch will once again thwart his attempt to run-away with the Chase, so I will once again put my reputation on the line and ensure that Kyle Busch will not pick up anymore bonus points by picking him to win the race this weekend. (Carl Edwards you can reach out to show your appreciation to me at sam@racereportradio.com)
Aug 20, 2008 | 9:15 PM
Category:
Sports
On the Banks of Bristol
Bristol is one of the most spectacular events in sports, just try to get a ticket to this race. Short track racing on a Saturday night is the way it should be. I have told you over the last several weeks that the excitement in the race to the chase is in the bottom half of the top twelve. Each race that is left between now and Richmond can, and probably will, shake up the point positions seven through fourteen. Coming out of Sunday's race in Michigan we had three drivers lose a combined 9 positions, three drivers gain 8 postions and two drivers stay exactly where they were at. Bristol, being Bristol, could shake up the point standing just as much this weekend.
There are still five drivers in the top twelve that don't have a win this season. The one of the most notable is Jeff Gordon. He has at least one win in every season going back to 1994. This has been a season of ups and downs for the 24 team. Over the last few weeks it has looked as though they had put the bad luck behind them and then on Sunday in Michigan they seemingly have a great car but falter on pit stops. The strain is starting to show a little bit. For the first time that I can remember Gordon publicly got onto his crew for the poor performance. Bristol is a good track for Gordon. He has five career wins, 12 top fives, 18 top tens, five poles with an average finish of 11.7 and a driver rating of 101.4.
Tony Stewart has to be the most unlucky driver in the cup series this season. He remains winless, in spite of having several races well in hand until something comes up to bite them. Stewart has had moderate success at Bristol with one win, five top fives, six top tens, one pole, average finish of 12.4 and a driver rating of 109.0. With all the major announcements for the 2009 season out of his way he might be able to focus 100% on the 20 team this weekend to pick up the win.
Kevin Harvick, even though he moved up three postions last week, is in need of a good solid run. Harvick has been strangely quiet this season and it is time to make some noise. Harvick has been a much better driver at Bristol in the spring races. In the last three spring races Harvick has a driver rating of 100.0. In the last three night races he has a driver rating of 96.7.
The two Roush-Fenway Racing teammates, Greg Biffle and Matt Kenseth, have had seasons that have consisted of hot and cold streaks. At one time I thought that Matt Kenseth was making a move to the front of the chase standings to challenge Kyle Busch, but that march to the front stalled out. At this point Kenseth needs to just hang on to make it into the chase. Biffle at one point this season was ready to move on from Roush-Fenway, but has since re-signed with the team. His performance since he re-signed with team has been sketchy at best. He has looked better in the last couple of weeks, but the 16 team could just as easily lay an egg this weekend in Bristol.
So we may have a first time winner at Bristol this weekend, but I am going to continue my self-sacrifice this week. In the name of saving the Chase for the Cup from being a complete romp I will again pick Kyle Busch the winner of the race this weekend. My pick ensures that Kyle Busch will not pick up anymore bonus points this weekend.
Whoever wins on Saturday night it will be a great race with a lot of beatin' and bangin' and remember, rubbin' is racin', Bristol style.
