jeremy_wheeler's Blog

So far Cristobal has been wobbling northeast off the coast of North Carolina.  It is going to be moving towards the southern Outer Banks this afternoon.  Winds may gust up to 50mph.  So far the gusts have been to about 30mph over Hatteras, but they are increasing.  Winds near the center are 50mph, and the center will probably move near Hatteras this evening around the dinner hour.  Heavy rain has been more of a threat on the Southside and the Peninsula than on the Outer Banks.  A couple of strong rain bands moved northwest and created a 5 minute carwash for some folks. 

I finally saw one factor that is inhibiting rapid strengthening of the storm.  There is some pretty dry air at about 650-300mb north of the storm.  The surface is moist, but that dry air may be affecting it's strength as well as it's motion.   Still there is no shear and water temperatures are warm enough.  The latest radar makes it look like the center is near Cape Lookout.  A tropical storm warning is still in effect for the Outer Banks.  They'll probably cancel it later tonight.  Stay tuned for the latest!

Tropical depression 3 is likely going to become Tropical Storm Cristobal later today.  Wish I had a (Chrystal-Ball)  -ha ha- to see what it is going to do.  The computer models aren't picking up on it too well.  The GFS and the NAM have it as a weak system and keep it mainly offshore tomorrow.  The GFDL has it just west of Hatteras which would really whip up the winds.  In their discussion, the National Hurricane Center isn't too sure why the models are keeping it weak.  They do mention that there is some dry air at the surface.  I can see that.  This was something that affected Gabriel last year, but this year we aren't in a severe drought. I think that makes a difference.  For Cristobal there is very weak shear.  Plus the gulf stream should feed it plenty of warm water.  So right now I'm leaning towards a just offshore Hatteras path for tomorrow afternoon/evening with some significant strengthening.   That's not official.  That's just my 2 cents.   Stay tuned! 

If I were living in Hatteras or Rodanthe right now, I would at least get my hurricane kit in order and be prepared for some minor wind damage.  (It's possible).  Get the lawn chairs out of the yard and in the garage so they don't blow around.  Then watch the weather close for the latest updates.  If the center of the storm  goes right over or just west of Hatteras, then the winds may gust up to 45...maybe 50mph.  If it stays offshore the wind gusts may only get up to 35mph.  

If I were in Hampton Roads, then I would just watch for updates for now.  Plus, we may get some heavy rain in both areas. 

Wacky weather is now the norm here in the region.  We went from drought to floods to severe weather with a hurricane in the Atlantic on top.  Some of this is great news.  We've picked up some good amounts of rain in the area.  Rain totals for the past couple of days are:

 Norfolk International - 2.08". 

Wallops Island - 0.37" 

Richmond - 1.80"

Elizabeth City - 1.17"

However, some areas received 4-6 inches recently.  So some of these numbers may not represent you.  We even had flood warnings last Sunday.  On Tuesday we had numerous reports of severe weather.  Lots of hail and tree limbs down.  I've posted a recent picture or two from Tuesday's damage. 

Last weekend we had an upper level disturbance move over us.  Basically a cold pocket of air aloft in the atmosphere.  You don't have to heat things up at the surface too much before thunderstorms fire up.  ESPECIALLY this time of year with the high sun angle.  After the weekend the disturbance subsided however, the rain saturated the ground and there was a LOT of humidity at the surface for Tuesday's storms to work with.  So I guess we got what we asked for.  My lawn has already greened up nicely in less than a week.  The forest fires are really diminished and maybe they'll even be put out soon.  It takes a lot to finally extinguish peat bog fires.  At least we don't have the widespread wildfires like they do in California.  I think all of the fires are affecting the climate. 

Finally, Bertha.... Now it is forecast to stay even East of Bermuda.  That's fine.  We don't need it now that we got nontropical rain.  It is definitely different from Bertha 96'.  (See previous post). 

As for the kitchen sink... that will probably get thrown at us sometime in the near future.  Watchy your head, because mother nature is really out of whack!

From the title you are probably either curious or confused.  Remember the list of tropical cyclones repeats every 6 years.  12 years ago in early July (about the same time as now) and in the same place (Eastern Atlantic) a small storm formed off the coast of Africa.  It moved West/Northwest and became hurricane Bertha over the Central Atlantic.  Amazing coincidence that the current Tropical Storm Bertha is on a generally similar path and at the same time as that year.  (By the way thanks to the weather folks on medialine for hinting me to this).  

The current Bertha is a little further north than the 96' track.  At 5 days out, the National Hurricane Center estimates the winds to be near 70mph.  Could get very interesting around here next weekend.  Odds are that it will probably curve and head back out to sea.  But Bertha 96' hit the North Carolina Coast around the Wilmington, NC area.   So even if the forecast track didn't bring Bertha 08' closer to the United States, there would still be a good reason to watch the storm.....  To compare it to the old Bertha of course.  Stay with Fox 43 and WAVY-TV for the latest information. 

Ok.  You may be asking how did we start with the B's this year?  Remember, we had that 1 or 2 day long Tropical Storm "Arthur" back in late May/Early June.  It affected Mexico and Central America with heavy rain.  Bertha has formed just off the coast of Africa as of this morning.  It is a Cape Verde storm as it has formed near the Cape Verde Islands near Africa.  It's moving generally west, but it over 3,500 miles away from Norfolk. 

Tom Schaad (one of our main WAVY anchors) asked me a good question about Bertha this afternoon?  Isn't it a little early for storms to form in that area?  I thought about it and hmm yeah, It is early for a Cape Verde storm.  I've often noticed a lot of storms come off of the African coast when a lot of storms move from the Northeast U.S. over to Europe.  We've had  an above average season for midlatitude storms over the Midwest and Northeast this Spring/Summer.  I don't have numbers to support this. But I do believe there is some kind of teleconnection between storms in the Westerlies and storms that come off of Africa.  Of course there are a lot of other factors in tropical cyclone formation.  Water temperatures, wind shear, even dust storms in African deserts.  But nobody has come up with a direct link to any one cause. 

It wouldn't be too bad to get a weak tropical system over Hampton Roads.  We need a lot of rain to put out these persistent wildfires.  Also, my grass is nothing but patches of brown and green.  And that's with watering.  Which brings my to my other quick note.

BE CAREFUL WITH FIREWORKS TOMORROW for the 4th!   There is a lot of dry grass and brush around the area.  We already have the Dismal Swamp fire and the Hyde county fires.  We don't need any more.  Observe your local laws for fireworks.  Some areas don't allow them at all.  Have a safe holiday and look for more updates on Bertha over the weekend. 

Wow!  What a day.  Lots of reports of severe weather.  We had numerous trees and powerlines down this afternoon/evening.  At one point Dominion Power reported over 20,000 people without power.   The storms came in from the west.  A watch was issed earlier in the day, but a lot of the warnings were actually south of the watch.   It wasn't  just heat and humidity (Summertime storms).  These storms had a little help from a weak wave of energy in the mid levels.   Very subtle and hard to detect, but I'm pretty sure it was there.   

Today was probably a lot of downbursts, but there was an unofficial report of a funnel cloud.  We've had some photos from viewers I've posted a couple here. 

Luckily, I haven't heard of any injuries.  Hopefully, that doesn't change. 

There are two fires blazing across the area at the time of this writing.   The bigger one is in Hyde County North Carolina.  The other one is in the Great Dismal Swamp.   Today's winds will blow the smoke westward and northwestward.  Tonight, winds will be from the south.  This will bring a lot of the smoke from both fires into the metro.  Not good.  Especially if you suffer from Asthma or have other breathing problems.  The smoke may get very thick for a couple of reasons: 

First, this is the first time that we've had two sizeable fires concurrently.  Usually we get one fire in one location, and then it's months before another.  At least in our viewing area.  Also, The Hyde county fire is huge.  It has burned about 40,000 acres so far.  The Dismal Swamp fire has burned roughly 1000 acres.  Finally fire teams are trying to fight these fires.  If they put out some of the fire, then the smoldering will create a lot of smoke.  When I was a kid I remember putting water on a fire to put it out and watched the smoke fill the air. 

As far as rain goes... we will see scattered showers and storms Saturday night into early Sunday.  But the rain chances are not that good.  Even if we do get rain.  The Dismal Swamp has a lot of peat bog.  This means that the fire can smolder and stay somewhat active for a long time.  It takes a lot of rain to put it out as some of it is under the ground.  At least that's my understanding. 

We'll wish the firefighters luck in their efforts and hope that no more homes are affected. 

Well, the apology comes from the fact that I wanted to blog about Tropical Strom Arthur a couple of days ago and I didn't get a chance.  Arthur was a short lived tropical storm that lived in the Western Caribbean right near Central America.  It didn't last long, but it was another early storm in the Atlantic.   We've seen quite a few tropical systems form  in the months of May, June, and July over the past few years.  Hmmmm 

HOWEVER, that was then and this is now and now we are melting.  I think my car sweat on the way into work this morning.  A Heat Advisory has been issued for Saturday and there will probably be one on Sunday.  Temperatures are expected to rise up to near 100 in some inland cities.  The heat index will pop up to 110 in spots.  A sea breeze will keep things cooler near the shore.  For those that don't know... a sea breeze is like a mini cold front.  It forms due to the cooler (60s) water temperatures.  The air modifies over the water while the air over the land heats up during the day.  The air rises over land.  Something has to take its place, so the mini front moves inland.  If there are strong winds, then the seabreeze can be stopped or even enhanced.  We'll see week winds over the weekend. 

A heat advisory gets posted when temperatures are expected to be relatively hot for a period of time.  Conditions become favorable for heat illnesses to occur.  Heat exhaustion, light headedness, and even heat stroke are possible.   The best way to combat the heat is to drink plenty of fluids, take things slow, and wear light colored clothing.  (Trust me. It helps!)

We've been here before forlks.  It's Summer so we expect hot weather.  It's just a little early this year.  Especially if you are heading to Harborfest.  Have a safe weekend! 

Alma was a tropical storm a couple of days ago.  It has been downgraded into a depression.  It did dump a lot of rain over Central America, especially over Nicaragua.  Sometimes tropical storms can do as much damage as a hurricane due to flooding.  Tropical Storm Gaston showed us that a couple of years ago as it brought flooding rain to Richmond.  

Alma was a Pacific storm.  However, a piece of that remnant low may sit over the western Caribbean and turn into something over the next several days.  We'll monitor. 

Lately, we have been rocked with bad weather across the area.  We've had a rash of tornadoes that have left people nervous every time a thunderstorm is mentioned in the forecast.  This year has been weird.  This is the time of year for storms though.  Usually, huge storms fire up in the plains from Texas North to the Dakotas.  This year we've seen a lot more severe weather in the Southeast, Great Lakes, and Mid Atlantic.  We've had more tornadoes here locally than in the rest of my 4 years of being here. 

Some people are saying that global warming is to blame.  This is one time where I argue with that.  I actually think that there has been cooler than average temperatures in Central Canada and the North Central United States.  This morning we had a record low temperature at the airport (mid 40s) after that last big system.  However, there has also been plenty of warmth in the South Central U.S.  Storms feed off of the energy created by the difference in temperatures.  This year areas of low pressure have moved right over us.  Whenever there is an area of low pressure between here and 100 miles to the west of Hampton Roads and there is a moderate to strong jet stream coming through, then we have a good shot at severe weather.  Lately the lows have been in what I call the sweet spot.  In the Suffolk tornado there was a weak boundary that moved across the area and it looks like a meso (small scale) low formed right over Suffolk along that boundary.  (I'm still investigating).  Sunday''s tornadoes in North Carolina were near a strong area of low pressure in the atmosphere.   For tornadoes you need A. Spin in the atmosphere, B Low level Humidity, and C. lift.  We've had a lot of spin in the atmosphere lately with the lift varying.  Usually storms ride north of us this time of year. 

  Weather systems around here happen in 3's.  I'm hoping the pattern will break and we'll less severe storms.  

The National Weather Service has put out the results from their damage assesments from the recent severe weather.  There is a new scale that they use called the Enhanced Fujita scale (EF scale).  It estimates the winds in a tornado based mostly on the damage.   An EF-3 tornado touched down in Suffolk causing 200 injuries and destroying numerous homes and businesses.  This included damage in the Driver area.  A terrible tragedy, but at least no one was killed.  Winds in an EF-3 are between 138-167mph.  The same storm moved over Norfolk Naval base and spawned an EF-1 tornado that caused damage to one building and several cars.  Winds in an EF-1 tornado are between 86-109mph. 

An EF-1 tornado did damage around Carrsville in Isle of Wight County.  Eleven homes and six buildings recieved damage. 

An EF-1 Also touched down in Northern Surry County around Claremont.  A double wide home was destroyed and numerous trees were down or snapped off. 

An EF-0 formed over Gloucester county.  The same storm formed another EF-0 over Mathews county shortly after.  The tornadoes knocked a lot of trees down in both areas, but I haven't seen any reports of damage to buildings.  EF-0's have winds under 86mph.  Don't let the 0 fool you though.  They are still dangerous and can do damage. 

There was damage reported near some homes in the Jamestown area, but I haven't seen a confirmation whether it was a tornado or not yet.  Damage assesments take a while and we may see more reports over the next couple of days.  All of the above information was released from the National Weather Service office in Wakefield.  They did a great job in issuing warnings for the event. 

There were a couple of other tornadoes outside of the viewing area.  It was a sad/scary day that will be remembered for a long time.  I got to ride in Chopper 10 and see the damage first hand in Suffolk.  It's always amazing to see the power of nature, yet sad to see how many people's lives can be affected too.

A very active weather day on Monday.  Storms fired up in the early afternoon and then produced severe weather.  We had multiple reports of tornadoes and funnel clouds through Monday afternoon.  Major damage was reported from just north of Downtown Suffolk Northeast to the Driver area in North Suffolk.  Minor damage was reported at Norfolk Naval Base and Damage was reported up around Mathews County, but it has yet to be determined how much damage was from tornadoes versus straight line winds.  We'll get the official survey reports from the national weather service.  But... looking at the video and damage I would estimate that it was an EF3 - EF4 for the worst areas.  Again the National Weather Service will give their official assesments.  This represents winds of about 140-200mph.  One of the photos is posted here. 

Looking at tornado climatology...The last time our area saw an F3 was back in 1993 in Urbanna, Virginia.  An F4 tornado also hit Petersburg in August of 1993.  4 deaths were reported from that storm. 

To sum up the weather during the event.  There was a strong line of storms that moved in from Central Virginia.  Isolated storms formed out ahead of the line and moved northeast at 50mph.  These supercells are the most dangerous storms as they don't have to compete for the moisture like the storms in the line. There was ample humidity and spin at the surface.  The instability was good, but not amazing.  There was rain before the event and little sunshine.  This goes against most strong tornadoes that I've observed where usually pre-storm sunshine plays a direct role in forming severe weather. 

The damage reports will come in and we'll update this event as we get the reports.  Our hearts go out to the residents who have been  affected by this tremendous storm. 

Temperatures are expected to drop this weekend...big time!  Tomorrow we expect temperatures to get to 80 degrees.  Inland may be a bit warmer.  A strong cold front swings through Friday night dropping temps to the upper 40s.  Then, Saturday we'll see a high near 50.  A 30 degree drop in 24 hours.  A lot of people around here use the saying "If you don't like the weather in Hampton Roads, then just wait a while and it will change."  I don't want to kill the romance in that statement, but everyone east of the Mississippi River says that. 

For instance... when I was going to college at the University of Illinois one year we saw an amazing drop.  One day it was 48 degrees and partly cloudy.  It was nice out for late Winter/early Spring.  Some people were in shorts even.  (Illinois people aren't crazy.  They just crave warm air).  Anyway, the next day the temperature hovered around -2.  That was either February or March. It goes to show you that we're not alone. 

Course it would be nice if the cold air would wait a day or two until after the weekend.  Hmm

Ok so I usually talk about systems after they happen.  Let's talk about the next system for once.  Well...A lot of people think that since Atlanta was hit by a recent tornado that our odds are good for seeing a tornado in the near future.  These systems usually swing up here don't they??? 

   What they don't realize is that they have tornadoes all over the Southeast this time of year.   And we still get those systems.... And they don't bring us tornadoes (usually).  It's just that there was so much attention to that particular big city storm that people are getting nervous.  Our next system is more likely to bring us strong/perhaps severe straight line winds.   Scattered thunderstorms will develop overnight (Wednesday night) into early Thursday.  An isolated tornado is possible yes, but we have better odds at seeing straight line wind problems.  Hopefully, we get some good rain out of this, but again we expect the storms/rain to be scattered. 

A lot of systems that move from the Gulf coast modify as they push through the Atlantic.  Some systems lose energy.  Some gain energy.  Bottom line.  What happens upstream isn't always what happens here. 

Yesterday, we had some amazing winds.  Winds gusted up to almost 60mph in Norfolk and around Oregon Inlet.  We had a couple thousand people without power.  Two of my weather watchers Don in Toano and Doris on the Lower Eastern Shore mentioned that they've haven't seen winds like that before.  Even with the big systems that have moved through in the past.  They were strong sustained winds, but the gusts were very impressive.   

I believe that if we had leaves on the trees, then we would have seen widespread power outages and trees down.  Leaves will allow the wind to push more on the tree, whereas wind can travel easily around sticks and branches.  Needled trees are an exception here because there are so many bunched together.   And we did have some trees down so maybe that's why.  Still it could have been worse. 

The reason for the strong wind.  A strong departing low and a high pressure area moving in.  This allowed for what we call a strong pressure gradient force.  A big difference in pressure over a relatively small distance.  It gets the winds going.