jeremy_wheeler's Blog

Ok...Hanna.  The latest information is that there is a lot of dry air wrapping into the system as it moves north of the Bahamas.  (See the water vapor image that I uploaded).  Black = dry.  White = moist.  This dry air along with some good wind shear has kept the system generally at the same strength.  It is now forecast to stay as a tropical storm all the way up until landfall by NHC.  However, it still may reach hurricane strength (a weak hurricane) before making landfall somewhere around Wilmington North Carolina.  There is still uncertainty in the models.  A few of them have it 20-30 miles inland.  A couple have it offshore.  If you average them out, then they show it pretty much right over Hampton Roads in the afternoon on Saturday.  There is a strong trough moving in from the west.  This will accelerate the storm during the day.  I think it will really get moving and they may speed up the track a little bit if I'm right.  Computer models have a tough time with rapid accelerations.  So we don't anticipate a major problem from tidal flooding.  Right now we're forecasting about 1-3ft above normal.  The track and speed will really dictate how high the tidal surge is.  If it takes the inland route, then it will be closer to 1-2 ft above normal.  If this system stays offshore, then the winds will really whip up near the shore.  But then the surge will be questionable. 

Rain:  Jon Cash and I talked about the rain amounts this morning.  Don and I talked about it this afternoon.  The computer models have a lot of rain forecast.  However, there are new indications that most the rain may be inland.  That seems to be the trend, and HPC (Hydrometeorological Prediction Center) now has trended that way.  I keep noting that there is a lot of dry air, and tropical systems have dried up (in part due to the drought) a few times over the last 2 years.  See my previous blog.  Don't get me wrong.  We will have rain in the area.  But even the National Weather Service has waited to put out any flood watches.  I think that's a good idea.  I just remember forecasting the heavy rain before Gabrielle, Christobal (Hatteras), and Fay and all of them did not deliver.  So that's why I'm putting it out there.  We'll see.  Gosh we need the rain. 

Wind:  Wind is a given.  Sort of... We will have strong/gusty winds.  If it goes over or just west of Hampton roads then the wind will still be strong.  More gusty and a little weaker with the inland route.  If it hugs the shore, then the winds may be very strong near the Outer Banks.  Either way that is where the strongest winds are expected.  There will be a threat for severe weather and isolated tornadoes as well across the region.  Lots of spin in the atmosphere already.  All you have to do is transfer the energy/spin to one of the smaller thunderstorms.  All in all though this is not the storm of the century.  People are a little nervous and we need to keep calm.  Get the lawn chairs, garbage cans, and yard toys put away so they don't blow around.  If you're on the Outer Banks, then you should make preparations for severe wind gusts.  Especially if Hanna hugs the coast and turns into a hurricane.  Everyone should tidy up and refresh their hurricane kits.  We'll probably have scattered power outages, but that may be a little premature. 

Ike... well it's a major hurricane.  It's way out there.  Let's get through Hanna first.  Then we'll cover Ike.