jeremy_wheeler's Blog

Well, not much rain is what I meant from the title.  We have a slow moving cold front that will move towards us.  Warmth and moisture will come up from the south over the next 36 hours out ahead of it.  Then we'll see another shot of cool air on Friday.  Rain will be spotty across the region.  At least the temperatures have been nice.    In this scary economy... at least we've probably been able to save some money by not running the heaters/air conditioners lately.  Lot's of people have been telling me that they are enjoying the cool weather.  The leaves are starting to turn color on the trees.  Remember last year we had warmth until February.  It was very unusual.  That probably won't happen this year as the Central Canadian cold pool has been built up quite nicely.  I remember one year in the early 90s when we trick-or-treated in SNOW.  That was in North Illinois though.  Won't be like that here, but it may be a chilly Halloween. 

Well it's official.  The National Weather Service in Wakefield put out a statement saying that there was an EF-0 tornado that touched down west of Wakefield on September 26th along with the Aulander tornado which touched down earlier that morning.  Large tree limbs were knocked down as well as a power line.  There was also some damage to a shed and some shingles blown off a house. 

Now we had more severe weather today.  Large hail was reported in Camden and Currituck counties.  In Old Trap and Maple.  Nickel sized I believe.   This was from a cold front that slowly moved through the area.  Tonight lows will be down in the low-mid 50s behind the front.  That will satisfy the Fall lovers.  My wife loves fall.  I'm more of a Summer kind of guy.  But I am actually looking forward to some cooler temps for a change. 

We had a tornado touch down yesterday in the viewing area.  An EF 0 did some damage in Aulander, NC.  Jon Cash and I covered the storms from the morning through the early afternoon.  We saw some good indications of rotation a few times as the storms moved northward from Northern Bertie county up through Southampton County.  It came from a band of storms that preceded a warm front.  I had an instructor at Mississippi State tell me that you can never underestimate a warm front.  I've heard that some storm chasers will even chase warm fronts out in the Plains to catch tornadoes (in some cases).  Typically warm fronts just bring light rain a.k.a stratiform precip.  There was a lot of tropical air moving into the region.  So cloud bases were very low.  Low clouds mixed with a little spin in the atmosphere can produce short lived tornadoes and that's what we saw yesterday.  We had reports/photos of barn damage.  Several mobile homes had minor/moderate damage.  There was also a funnel cloud reported near Courtland and a photo of a possible funnel cloud near Wakefield.  It's been a few busy days.  The upside of all of this is that we are getting some very beneficial rain lately.  Here are some of my weather watcher rain reports:  Don in Toano 2.37" in the last 2 days.  Cindy in Williamsburg 4".  Greg in Currituck about 3".  Pam in Gloucester 4".  Donna in Blackwater (S. Virginia Beach) has over 4".  Finally, Doris on the Lower Eastern Shore got 3/4", but that was before the heavy rain this morning.  My yard is happy.  That's for sure. 

Here's the latest on the coastal storm... It's still spinning off the coast of the Carolinas.  It is well south of us.  But again it's the squeeze play between this storm and the high to the north that is producing the strong winds.  Winds have gusted up to 56 mph at our weathernet site in Virginia Beach at the Ocean Front.  51mph gust at our site at Oregon Inlet.  We had a gust to 42mph here at the station in Portsmouth.  I've seen reports of streets blocked off earlier this morning around high tide, but the water is receding (for now).  High tide will occur again between 5 and 7pm.  Tides will be about 2-3 ft above normal.  Probably a couple inches higher than this morning.  Winds will stay up through the day and will get a little stronger this afternoon.  Winds will taper off tonight. 

Rain will probably stick around through Saturday.  So far we've picked up a half an inch to an inch.  HPC (Hydrometeorological Prediction Center)  ((A branch of NOAA that predicts rain amounts)) predicts another 1-2 inches.  If the rain stays until Saturday night, then we may pick up more than that.  Of course local amounts will be higher in spots. 

By the way.  We didn't have much rain for this morning's low tide.  We'll have to see if the rain that is here now will add to the tidal flooding in the evening. 

We have the usual squeeze play between a High pressure area to the North and an area of low pressure to the South/Southeast creating strong winds.  The low is expected to strengthen a little and move closer to the area.  When a high and a low are fairly close together, you get a force between them called the pressure gradient force.  

   The winds will pick up this evening into tomorrow.  Winds are expected to GUST to 60mph near the coast.  Minor to moderate tidal flooding is forecast for early tomorrow morning, and then again tomorrow evening.  The tidal flooding will be worse than Hanna, but not as bad as the 2006 Nor'easters.  There is the outside chance that the low strengthens rapidly.  Then the winds will really pick up and tidal flooding will be worse.  However, this is not favored in the forecast.  There is not a lot of upper level energy to spin up the system.  But the low may become subtropical/tropical.  I won't go into the technicalities of that.  But if that happens, then it can feed off of the warm ocean waters which are generally in the upper 70s.  Either way we will probably see scattered power outages tomorrow. 

The low will pass to our West which kind of stops it from being a true Nor'easter.  Usually Nor'easters move to the North or Northeast.  Things will improve tomorrow night as the system begins to move away from us. 

Well, this will be short. Finally, some nice cool (seasonable) air has moved into the area.  This should last for a few days.  It's nice to get a breather after all the local weather and the tropics were so fired up.  I'm sure it won't last. 

There has been a lot of cool air up in Canada for most of the Summer.  I saw an internet article a while back stating that Alaska had one of the coolest Summers in a long time.  The word is that the Farmer's Almanac is predicting an early and cold Winter.  I am thinking the same thing.  Could we see frost in October?  We'll see. 

 

Hurricane Ike made landfall this morning as a category 2 hurricane near Galveston Texas.  While I was doing the weather I noticed wind gusts over 90 mph in that region.  The TV networks were talking about the 17ft seawall in Galveston, and the water was up to or just over that.  This was a huge storm that affected a large area.  Reports will come in later today.  It takes a while for the reports to come in because the reporters can't get out and wander around while the storm is still around.  I'm sure that some of the reports will be amazing and tragic.  Ike will continue to move inland and weaken to a tropical storm probably later today.   It is forecast to stay well west of Hampton Roads.  Our big story will be the heat.  A large ridge of high pressure will put our temps in the upper 80s/lower 90s today.  Tomorrow we'll see low/mid 90s.  The record is 92 at Norfolk International for Sunday.  The high may hit 94.  The heat index may be up to 100. 

Hurricane Ike is still a category 2 hurricane as of Thursday evening.  I always say that every tropical system is different.  The main feature that sticks out with Ike is its size.  Hurricane force winds extend out over 100 miles from the center.  Tropical storm force winds stretch out about 200 miles.  This is really churning up the waters in the Gulf of Mexico.  NHC mentions in their discussion that a storm surge of 20ft is possible.  I saw a buoy earlier today which showed waves at about 23ft already.  The storm is expected to intensify gradually, but intensity forecasting still needs improvement.   People also need to be aware that the storm may weaken right before landfall.  A lot of storms have done that in the past.  However, even if it weakens the storm surge may still be very high.  Remember, Katrina weakened to a category 3 hurricane, but it delivered category 5 surge to the Mississipi Coast.  The models have a pretty good consenus that it will make landfall just to the west/southwest of Galveston/Houston.  Say a prayer for the folks down there when you get a chance.  Evacuations are under way. 

A nice cold front has moved into the area recently.  Yesterday we had some downpours out ahead of it.  But as the storms moved into the metro, they fizzled out.  Today temperatures will drop about 10-15 degrees compared to yesterday's high temps.  It will feel a little like Fall.  The average high temperature for this time of year is 81 degrees.  Highs will be in the low-mid 70s.  Also, we are picking up on the rainfall.  We got some fair amounts from Hanna last weekend.  About 2.5 inches at Norfolk International.  This morning we got another good soaking through most of the area.  Hopefully, this will help the pumpkin patches as the pumpkin picking gets underway in less than a month.   

Ike is still a hurricane after surviving hours over land on Cuba.  It has now re-emerged and will now intensify over the warm Gulf waters.  It will probably be a major hurriance in 36-72 hours.  It's currently forecasted to move towards South Texas.  The most likely path puts it near Corpus Christi by Satuday morning. 

Well as we saw Hanna's effects varied.  I saw a couple of comments on here that the winds weren't too bad.  The strong winds were spotty.  But it was pretty much as we forecast.  We expected winds between 20-30 with gusts between 45-55mph.  There were numerous reports/photos of trees down, powerlines down, and lots of leaves and branches.  It knocked power out to several thousand people at one point.  It wasn't bad everywhere.  A lot of the gusts came from the rainbands pushing through.  Not from the center of the storm as is usually the case.  There wasn't too much rain on the Southeast side of the storm, and that was predicted quite well.  I ran a previous blog talking about how some folks may not get much rain.  I actually wish we got a little more on the southside.  There was localized flooding in the region.  We got a picture from Perquimans County where a viewer's car had water up to it's bumper.  Overall we fared just fine.  Just as we thought we would.  I think part of the reason that people thought there would be more is one of perception.  When I say in the forecast that we'll see winds gusting to 45-55mph, people really panic.  When I say that we had winds that gusted between 45-55mph then people say ehh and shrug it off.  Remember too...  A severe thunderstorm has winds over 57mph.  We only saw one possible gust over 60 in the viewing area yesterday.  

Well it's 10:45am on Saturday morning.  Hanna has really been a variable storm here at the Beach.  Early this morning there were no winds between the Oceanfront and Sandbridge.  Then the winds slowly crept up.  Now the winds are constantly gusting.  Pretty strong too.  Lots of sand blowing around.  There is actually a quite a few people out watching the storm.  We spoke with some of them.  Most  were unimpressed by Hanna's effects.  A little hard to believe since I've been here 5 years and I'm even impressed by the waves.  A few brave lads waded up to their waist.  But they said that there was a strong rip current that was trying to suck them out.  Very dangerous.  The sun has been out (partly cloudy) for the last 45 minutes or so.  We got a chance to dry off after the pelting rain that we got earlier. 

This is my last update for today from the oceanfront.  We may get a few more rainbands, but conditions are probably about as bad as they are going to get.  With the exception of the tide.  Be safe everyone and thanks for watching/reading!  Isn't technology great.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

It's about 8:30am and I'm at the Virginia Beach Oceanfront around 16th street. Don't come down for a visit though. Rain is very heavy now. Winds are gusting possibly up to 50mph as measured by one of our weathernet sites. Our van is lightly rocking so it is definetly gusty. Waves are running about 5-7ft now (estimated). There was a surfer earlier, but he even headed home now. Remember the rough surf is very dangerous, so please don't try to surf until condtions calm down a little.

If I saw the radar right, then it looks like this storm may be a little ahead of schedule. Jon Cash is updating on WAVY-TV and information is crawling on WVBT.

It's about 7:30am on Saturday morning. I'm live at the Virginia Beach Oceanfront. Winds have steadily increased over the past couple of hours. We're seeing wind gusts (estimated) at about 25mph. Rain is coming in in bands. Waves are running about 3-5ft with a few waves probably up to 6ft. High tide will be in the early afternoon, and that is when the winds will be 10-20mph stronger than they are now. Could see some beach erosion and minor tidal flooding then. I'll try to report back later this morning. Lots of people out earlier. A lot of them have cleared out now.

Hanna is still a strong tropical storm.  It took a jog to the west then to the east this morning.  I wonder if that was caused by the shear working on the storm.  There has still been some dry air working into the system, but it is not as evident on Water Vapor.  Hanna is still expected to come ashore near the Wilmington area, and then move over land.  It should weaken as it moves into our area, however we still expect some strong winds.  Winds are forecasted to be SSE at about 25-35mph with gusts from 45-60mph.  Especially stronger near the shore.  We had one nice rainband move through already.  It produced about a tenth to a little less than a half inch of rain.   We'll probably see some more overnight. 

This is still not an Isabel type storm for our area, but a lot of people are really getting nervous.  They forget that we have had quite a few tropical storms move over the area over the last 5 years.  Especially in 2004.  Gaston and Charley were 2 examples. 

We still expect some minor to moderate tidal flooding during Saturday afternoon.  Generally between noon and 2pm.  If Hanna stays over toward the I-95 corridor, then there will be less.  If it hugs the coast, then we could see a 4ft water rise above the average tide.  Officially, we and the National Hurricane Center expect the storm to start out inland and then move just west of the metro up through the Northern Chesapeake Bay.  Of course that is apt to change. 

I still think this thing is going to accelerate tomorrow.  It is forecast to move through in the early afternoon, but that may change. 

I'll try to update more tomorrow.  Be safe!

Ok...Hanna.  The latest information is that there is a lot of dry air wrapping into the system as it moves north of the Bahamas.  (See the water vapor image that I uploaded).  Black = dry.  White = moist.  This dry air along with some good wind shear has kept the system generally at the same strength.  It is now forecast to stay as a tropical storm all the way up until landfall by NHC.  However, it still may reach hurricane strength (a weak hurricane) before making landfall somewhere around Wilmington North Carolina.  There is still uncertainty in the models.  A few of them have it 20-30 miles inland.  A couple have it offshore.  If you average them out, then they show it pretty much right over Hampton Roads in the afternoon on Saturday.  There is a strong trough moving in from the west.  This will accelerate the storm during the day.  I think it will really get moving and they may speed up the track a little bit if I'm right.  Computer models have a tough time with rapid accelerations.  So we don't anticipate a major problem from tidal flooding.  Right now we're forecasting about 1-3ft above normal.  The track and speed will really dictate how high the tidal surge is.  If it takes the inland route, then it will be closer to 1-2 ft above normal.  If this system stays offshore, then the winds will really whip up near the shore.  But then the surge will be questionable. 

Rain:  Jon Cash and I talked about the rain amounts this morning.  Don and I talked about it this afternoon.  The computer models have a lot of rain forecast.  However, there are new indications that most the rain may be inland.  That seems to be the trend, and HPC (Hydrometeorological Prediction Center) now has trended that way.  I keep noting that there is a lot of dry air, and tropical systems have dried up (in part due to the drought) a few times over the last 2 years.  See my previous blog.  Don't get me wrong.  We will have rain in the area.  But even the National Weather Service has waited to put out any flood watches.  I think that's a good idea.  I just remember forecasting the heavy rain before Gabrielle, Christobal (Hatteras), and Fay and all of them did not deliver.  So that's why I'm putting it out there.  We'll see.  Gosh we need the rain. 

Wind:  Wind is a given.  Sort of... We will have strong/gusty winds.  If it goes over or just west of Hampton roads then the wind will still be strong.  More gusty and a little weaker with the inland route.  If it hugs the shore, then the winds may be very strong near the Outer Banks.  Either way that is where the strongest winds are expected.  There will be a threat for severe weather and isolated tornadoes as well across the region.  Lots of spin in the atmosphere already.  All you have to do is transfer the energy/spin to one of the smaller thunderstorms.  All in all though this is not the storm of the century.  People are a little nervous and we need to keep calm.  Get the lawn chairs, garbage cans, and yard toys put away so they don't blow around.  If you're on the Outer Banks, then you should make preparations for severe wind gusts.  Especially if Hanna hugs the coast and turns into a hurricane.  Everyone should tidy up and refresh their hurricane kits.  We'll probably have scattered power outages, but that may be a little premature. 

Ike... well it's a major hurricane.  It's way out there.  Let's get through Hanna first.  Then we'll cover Ike.